Entering the final stretch of the race has a lot of nail-biting, hand-wringing, and cold-sweat-panicking going on from both sides of the aisle. Let’s stop guessing and start looking at the data coming out of the battleground states where early voting has already taken place. As we review it, keep in mind that this is early and mail voting and will likely favor Democrats as a whole, as it is expected that day-of-election voting should favor Trump and Republicans by an almost 2 to 1 margin.
Minnesota:
At 46% to 31% in favor of Dems, Minnesota has racked up a huge early vote. We know that Trump will likely win DOE voting, but not likely enough to overcome a 15 point trailing in the state. The good news is that nearly 50% of the total votes cast in 2016 remain outstanding, but that doesn’t mean that Trump wins those votes by a margin greater than 15 points to counter this. Democrats have turned out 48% of their 2016 vote, while Republicans have turned out 34% of their 2016 vote. Since those numbers are almost identical to turn out thus far, Dems will likely keep that state blue.
Iowa:
This is a disaster for Democrats. Despite a huge registration push and advantage since 2016, Dems really needed to shine in Iowa to win this state. Considering there is a 16 point advantage for Dems, over 61% of the 2016 Dem vote has already been done, while only 34% of the total Republican vote from 2016 has been cast. That means that while there’s a 16 point advantage, Dems have less than 40% remaining to turn out, while Republicans have over 65%, a 25 point advantage for Republicans. In other words, Republicans could still fail to turn out at the 2016 rate of their vote, and still win the state.
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Go Donald, Go Donald! No communists! TRUMP 2020
This is exactly what I have been expecting. (Read my old posts if you don't believe it!) Trump will win with a huge landslide and he'll make the House and Senate Republican just like he did in 2016. All Americans can clearly see that Trump is making America great again. They want more of the same: a booming economy, record stock market, jobs coming back to America, secure borders, tackling the China virus like no other industrialized nation in the world, constitution loving judges on the Supreme Court, lower trade deficit, fiscal responsibility, paying back our debts, all of which Trump announced in 2016 and all of which he delivered for us. Trump's record speaks for itself. The next 4 years of Trump will bring us more of the same and then some. Trump 2020!!!!!