Sent: 4/3/2023 8:49:57 AM Central Standard Time
Subject: epidemiologist--evidence of expert error
In June 2020, The ny times polled 511 epidemiologists about what activities they thought were safe. At the time, only 20% said they were willing to fly. 37% said they did not expect to fly for at least another year. Only 14% would hug or shake hands with a friend, 13% would go to church, and 3% to a sporting event. Note that that was June 2020, when mass protests of tens of thousands of people were the only group activity that public experts permitted(1).
But what about after the vaccines arrived? The miraculous vaccines? Everything changed then, right? Not exactly. The ny times conducted a follow-up survey of 723 epidemiologists in May 2021 - after most Americans at high risk, and everyone who wanted one, had already received mRNA vaccines. Recall that May 2021 was the peak of vaccine overconfidence, too. It was the month fauci said the shots were so effective that the United States could likely “eliminate” Sars-Cov-2 as a risk. Yet in May 2021, only 39% of the epidemiologists surveyed said they would hug or shake hands with friends. Only 25% had taken an airplane, and 15% gone to a gym.
That bizarre overestimation of China virus risks, and desperate effort to avoid catching it, continues to this day, taking precautions that are both absurd - given Omicron’s relative mildness - and useless - given its infectivity. 87% epidemiologists the washington post surveyed 2 weeks ago said they still mask almost everywhere in public. 37% said they tried to avoid eating indoors in restaurants. 50% said they continue to test routinely for Covid before meeting friends. Dr. walensky - the Centers for Disease Control director - said: "I might get a text from a friend coming for coffee and she’ll send me a picture of a negative test. We don’t even have to ask. Why are epidemiologists still living like this? Why are they still so afraid?
At this point, at least part of the explanation appears to be psychological, not political: that some physicians and researchers are drawn to epidemiology and infectious disease work because of their particular fear of disease and epidemics. Either they want to stop these epidemics, heroically, or they want to face and manage their own fears, or both. Similar connections have been shown in other medical and health sub-specialties. A 2017 survey of 636 dietitians revealed that 50% were at risk for anorexia, and 8% had been treated for an eating disorder, rates far above the general public. Similarly, a 2022 survey of almost 1,700 faculty, graduate students, and others associated with clinical psychology programs found that over 80% had a history of mental health problems and 50% had a diagnosed mental disorder.
Minor respiratory viruses are part of the social fabric of our world. But the fear-driven responses from epidemiologists (not to mention the rushed mRNA shots that the government and drug companies delivered in part because of those fears) - those might be the real danger.
The faults of the past few years were not small, and they require much contrition and conversion, above all from our leaders, to whom much was given and from whom much will be required. Forgiveness is available. But crucial to forgiveness is first an honest admission of fault. Otherwise, it's just cheap mercy without even the pretense of justice. We don't need that kind of cheap amnesty.
We also need accountability from our leaders. Without acknowledgment of wrong, and consequences for it, we thwart justice. We also make it more likely at the same people who bungled the response to the China virus will get a chance to do it again. Accountability is the balancing of the ledger. It’s the checking of actual behavior against what’s required. When “actual” deviates from “required,” a correction is needed -- a price must be paid. That price may be paid in the form of a penalty, personal embarrassment, or loss of a future opportunity. Good employees relish accountability. The feedback helps them excel. Bad employees avoid accountability -- for obvious reasons.
Most of all, we need to take one of the universal lessons of organizational behavior to heart; that being never let those who broke the system attempt to fix it.
Further readings:
https://patriotpost.us/alexander/95736-the-chicom-virus-pandemic-year-three-2023-03-15
https://nypost.com/2023/03/25/fauci-on-film-is-still-flinging-fear-mongering-flim-flam/
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/03/january_6_doesnt_shine_a_candle_to_covid.html
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