California has not seen a congressional seat flip from blue to red in more than two decades, but state and national Republican officials say they are well-positioned to do so in Tuesday's special election.
Democrats have scrambled to retain control of the state's highly contested 25th Congressional District after former representative Katie Hill resigned in November 2019 amid a salacious scandal involving a "throuple" and allegations of workplace sexual misconduct.
Though registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the district by 30,000, Democratic state assemblywoman Christy Smith now trails Republican former Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia. Smith told supporters on Thursday that Republicans "have outpaced us in this moment by about 10,000 ballots," a reference to early voting data showing that just 25 percent of registered Democrats have returned mail-in ballots, compared with nearly 40 percent of Republicans.
"The best measure of how Republicans are doing right now is Christy Smith's own statements," one GOP operative with knowledge of the race said.
Republicans held the suburban seat for more than 25 years before Hill's 9-point defeat of former GOP incumbent Steve Knight in 2018. National Democrats expected the freshman congresswoman to cruise to reelection, but Hill's "throuple" relationship with a campaign staffer and the coronavirus pandemic have tightened the race. Heavy hitters in the Democratic Party are now rushing to influence the election. Former president Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton endorsed Smith in early May as internal polling and returned mail-in ballots showed Smith trailing Garcia by thousands of votes.
"The Obama and Clinton endorsements show how much Smith is struggling right now," the operative said. "They came about three weeks after ballots had already been mailed in the district and after many voters had returned those ballots."
Both parties are looking to the district as a bellwether for both the presidential election and contentious House races after Democrats flipped 37 suburban seats in 2018. The Southern California district was a prime example of the GOP's suburban struggles under President Donald Trump, who lost to Clinton by 7 points in the district in 2016. A Garcia win would mark the first time since 1998 that a California Republican successfully won a seat held by a Democrat. More important for national party officials, it could point to a path for success in November.
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