If Not Now, When?

The US is acting within well-defined limits and principles of realist statecraft. Why?

It is obvious to everyone but the most willfully deceptive neo-liberal that the Iranian regime has been an active, aggressive foe of the US for nearly 50yrs. The threat Iran poses is not theoretical. Ending the threatening behavior of a dangerous regime is necessary, even if there is no immediate moment that demands it. Sovereignty is not an absolute shield when a regime’s actions have created a high probability of catastrophic harm to others beyond its borders. Whether that regime is causing harm right now (as Iran has for some time, directly and through its murderous proxies in hezbollah, hamas, and houthis), or if it is “just” a latent threat, is a little academic. Even if the threat were simply prospective, the nature of it is existential(1). After all, elimination of both Israel and the US is the Iran’s declared policy.

Eliminating that threat--to ourselves, and in partnership with Israel--is justifiable, even without having a clear sense of what might come next for the Iranian people. The military operation is diminishing the ability of the regime to threaten the US and allies in the region and globally. Curtailing Iran’s ability to do that, even if an unfriendly government remains, is justified. Failing to eliminate the regime may not immediately improve the circumstances of the Iranian people, but the military operation to end the threat to the US includes significant destruction of the internal security apparatus that is harming ordinary Iranians. Life under the mullahs has been decades of repression, torture, and death for many tens of thousands who stayed; exile and separation from their homeland for those who fled. The theocracy has caused untold death and suffering for decades, and the risk for more of that was unacceptably high.

Under those circumstances, stopping a regime’s capacity to cause catastrophic damage is justified even if the intervention itself causes serious risk. In the case of Iran, the threat is not speculative. Iran’s intent, capabilities, and behavior have had demonstrably dangerous results for America and Americans. Meanwhile, US actions are not based on dislike, ideology, or rivalry. US military operations have the clear objective to degrade Iran’s capabilities, not to punish. This is a crucial distinction. It is not vengeance or humiliation, but to remove the ability to cause catastrophic harm. These factors are consistent with the accepted elements of a just war, including the right to self-defense and with the intention to establish peace, not for self-interest or aggrandizement.

The core justification can be refined this way in more general terms: If a regime’s behavior makes catastrophic conflict likely, then early intervention, though possibly tragic, may prevent greater destruction later. Waiting to act increases the danger. Delay allows capabilities to mature. It is not certain when Iran may have developed a nuclear weapon, but it is reasonable to assume--again, based on intent and prior behavior--that if Iran had such a capability, it would use it. Any student of history would know this is an age-old concept.

Thucydides said that states have a duty to prioritize survival and security. Strategic realities take precedence over moral arguments. 1 question in this framework is whether the target regime creates structural instability for neighboring states. Does it threaten the balance of power? Does waiting increase the cost of confrontation(2)? In the case of Iran, the answer is yes to all 3. By preventing a growing strategic threat, a future catastrophe is averted.

Hans Morgenthau's core thinking was that states must protect national interests and that balancing these against strategic reality is fundamental. He acknowledged that war cannot eliminate evil completely. But he was concerned with moral passivity: ignoring threats to national interests until they became overwhelming. Morgenthau did grant that post-conflict order is a consideration, particularly as it might alter the relevant balance of power. He understood the role that regional stability played even within the context of great-power confrontation, and he knew that a decision to act would lead to unintended consequences. Operation Epic Fury stands up pretty well. Iran is clearly a destabilizing force in the region, and the balance of regional power can only improve by removing Iran’s ability to conduct offensive operations and destabilize countries directly or through proxies.

There is, of course, the concern of acting against a known threat versus having to deal with the unknown potential consequences. That is the policy risk consideration that Trump and regional allies had to consider. Reality does not assume that removing a regime will automatically stabilize the balance of power. But the continued existence of the dangerous khamenei regime threatened regional balance for decades. During that time, it expanded its destructive capabilities, directly and through its proxies. There were many times when direct US action to eliminate it might have been justified, beginning with the deaths of more than 241 U.S. military service members in 1983 in Lebanon and several times since.

The risk of continued inaction or limited action by the US against Iran ultimately exceeded the risk of acting. Leadership in such a circumstance must rely upon prudential judgment and a balance of risks. The duty is also to be clear about the rationale, even if it falls short in some ways (e.g., some continuation of authoritarian government in Iran). 

The left-wing/democrat elites are doing everything they can to force the narrative that the War on Iran is unjust. No matter what the facts are, the left-wing only present 1's they can twist against Trump. No wonder privileged white leftist women opposed the war in droves while their Iranian-born counterparts around the world dance and thank Trump, and are still alive. 

1. There’s no material in the world of energy that is more valuable than oil because oil is just so unique in terms of it has this very high energy density and portability. The world runs on mobility and oil is ideal for mobility. Crude oil is rated in terms of weight and sourness, and our refineries are mostly handle heavier crude. Weimport heavy crude from te Middel East and export light crude from America. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has control over, has 20% of the world’s oil production is flowing through that every day. There is no replacement whatsoever for opening that Strait and keeping it open.
 
What are everyone's thoughts on this?
Don't be shy, respond!
 
The Tradesman
 

You need to be a member of Command Center to add comments!

Join Command Center

Email me when people reply –

Replies

  • I'll start it off;

    The strategy of confronting both Venezuela and Iran at the same time shows the kind of strategic thinking our so-called experts in the media never seem to understand. Instead of allowing hostile regimes to strengthen each other, the plan disrupts their alignment and forces both to react on America’s terms. Strong pressure against Venezuela and Iran’s nuclear ambitions sends a clear message that the U.S. will not sit back while adversaries coordinate against us. Yet instead of acknowledging the positive results, much of the media twists the story into fear and failure. The real story is that decisive leadership still works.

    • I think you've got it right. 

This reply was deleted.