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1/ Illinois’ pension hole is so deep you could sell every NBA team and still come up $4 billion short.

Read that again.

Here's how it got so bad—and how state leaders will climb out (if they're smart).🧵 

2/ Illinois’ five state-run pensions are only 46.1% funded—meaning just 46¢ saved for every $1 promised.

That’s why the hole is $143.7B and growing.

3/ For scale:

👉Sell all 30 NBA teams and you’d still be $4B short

👉It equals ~19% of what Illinois produces in a year

👉A family of four’s share of the debt is $45,000+ 

4/ Breakout by system (FY2024):

5/ Illinois already spends about 20% of its budget on pensions and has paid $27B more than the legal minimum over time.

It's still not enough.

The funding ramp was flawed from the start.

Since 1996, it drove ~47% of the debt growth. 

6/ What to do about:

✅Protect Tier 2 savings (use the new safety fund if a rare shortfall arises)

✅Constitutional amendment to right-size future benefits

✅Offer direct contribution plans statewide (SURS’ unique opt-in plan is already popular)

✅Expand buyouts 

7/ Bottom line:

Without structural reform, pension debt will keep outpacing what taxpayers can afford—and crowd out core services.

The longer we wait, the fewer good options we’ll have.