source; https://www.revolver.news/2020/12/statistical-model-indicates-trump-won-landslide/
1. Our model explains 96% of county-level variance in Trump’s two-party vote share with four demographic variables (non-college white, college-educated white, black and hispanic) and one historical variable (the average of county-level GOP two-party presidential vote share, 2004-2016). All five variables are highly significant. This reinforces the conclusion that the model is generally a very strong predictor of vote shares, and so deviations from it should be considered surprising.
2. Under conservative assumptions, regression analysis shows Trump ought to have won AZ, GA, NV, PA, WI.
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