There are models, and then there are models. I build models of ships as a hobby, I strive for accuracy, and after consulting up to a dozen sources I probably have the most accurate models of various navies possible for a reasonable price. The models, however do not talk to me so I have no actual confirmation that my model ships are absolutely accurate.
I can’t remember the actual name of the Bill and Melinda Gates ‘model’ that the CDC is using exclusively, I don’t care – it doesn’t matter, but for the sake of discussion I’ll call it the CNN model.
Apparently all the ‘experts’ at the CDC are using only the CNN model, which is like saying the pundits are only using one political poll from the MSM (D) to be able to determine the odds of who is going to win a political race. At this point the CNN ‘model’ is as accurate and as biased as a MSM (D) political poll.
Why can’t we at least use the RCP (Real Clear Politics) method where they average numerous polls, however flawed they might be, as a means to get a clearer picture of what is really happening with the spread and impact of this ‘pandemic’? It would also show which models are the most accurate.
Better yet, how about actually inputting actual and broad based data into the model, rather than worse case agenda driven speculation! Typically a collaboration of anything – ‘diversity’ of ideas if you will – will generate a better and more accurate result; otherwise we may well get a highly inaccurate outlier, which is what appears to be happening.
It is a given that our political polling is generally skewed to the left to drive rather than reflect public opinion, with the majority of polls going that way, while the Rasmussen poll typically shows right of center results and it has an enviable and historically accurate record. Rasmussen is often shown as an outlier but since it is included in the RCP equation it drives the data towards a more accurate reflection of real public thought. We apparently have no such counter ‘model’ showing ‘diversity’ in fighting this economy-crippling ‘pandemic’.
The real question is how come we are not using data from several ‘models’? How come the methodologies used in this one ‘model’ are not better shown? Even the largely flawed methodology of the MSM political polls is usually available to be analyzed where they oversample Democrats, or they poll all adults, or registered voters instead of likely voters.
read more:
http://dbdailyupdate.com/index.php/2020/04/07/the-peril-of-running-a-country-based-on-models/
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