ACTION

 

Syria now full member of anti-chemical arms pact: U.N. envoy

 

I note that this development is not unexpected and is in line with my prior assessment of this situation.    

That prior assessment is as follows.

 

Prior Assessment

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It appears that Russia is pressuring the United States to drop the Strike Option and has withdrawn its request for Emergency Meeting of the Security Council pending the United States Clarification of its position with regards to a strike.

By doing this Russia pressures the United States to make a decision with regards to a strike.  In effect it tells the United States by it UN action, we will take the option removal of chemical weapons and destruction of chemical weapons capability off the table it you go ahead with a strike.

This puts the United States back in the position of either being an aggressor and out of touch with the rest of the world if it keeps the strike on the table or capitulating and bending to Russian will.

 

This latest move set the stage for escalated retaliation against the United States if we go ahead by Syria and its allies.  These allies will paint us as out of control killers who only want to kill Muslims and not negotiate.  Such events could negatively affect the negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program which involve both Russia and China and need them and their support to rein in. 

 
In doing so the Russian's want the United States and its leadership to lose face before the world and be humbled.  Such a loss of prestige on the part of the United States could backfire however and result in the election of a more aggressive United States leadership in the next election cycle.
We shall have to see what the President says during his speech tonight.

 
It will indicate the path he will take us down.  The Russian's are playing a game of hardball and its our turn to respond tonight.

 
One thing is certain is that the propaganda machines of Russia, its allies and in the Middle east will and are now churning out reams of material saying the United States is a war monger, is unwilling to engage in negotiations and is weak. 

We are all ready beginning to pay a price for the position Russia has forced us into.

With the American people split with most opposed to boots on the ground, the President has some thinking to do about his speech coming up and what he is going to say.

 

I did a quick check of the news coming out of the groups allied with Syria, as well as Russia and the themes are, in simple terms as follows:

1.  The Russian's are leading the way on a peaceful solution

2.  That the United States is the main aggressor and obstacle to a diplomatic solution.

3.  That a strike by the United States will result in retaliation against the United States from a variety of groups and nation states.

4.  That polling of the American people shows they are against a strike and the leadership of the United States is out of sync with its people.

5.  That Syria is willing to comply with the Russian proposal.

These themes have started to dominate the media feeds in Lebanon, Syria and Iran as well as Russia and China.  These themes have been playing non-stop for roughly the last twenty four hours.  This media blitz is attempting to steer the regional population's view on the issue against the United States and in support of the position of Syria and its allies.  Over time this will have an effect on the populations and make it more difficult for us to conduct a strike without having to face a significant threat of retaliation.