Obama and Lew the Perfect Fiscal Storm

By Gregg Houlden

Every Investment Banking professional including myself look upon Lew's nomination with little less than despair. Not really for our personal wealth, as we can as easily operate from London and Singapore as NY or LA, but for the average working American. Already the effects of Obama's amateur and ideology led economic management is beginning to bite. (4th Quarter GDP Estimate Reduced to .8% from 1.5%). 

What does the Lew appointment mean to the average American? In my professional opinion, two major problems. An almost certain further downgrade by S&P and Moody's probably in Q1 13 will deliver higher interest rates. That means every Credit Card, Mortgage or Loan will become more expensive. The second point is more direct and will hit the middle class with a double whammy, the long term effects on manufacturing and large scale employers of Obama Care and increased payroll tax will be felt. I expect certain initial indicators to flag deeper problems. Already, Amex has decided to shed 5,500 jobs. I expect other Finance Houses to follow suit as they outsource to London or other destinations with more corporate friendly administrations. Manufacturing already burdened by the Unions and Obama's leftist led FMCS will once again to look to globalization to reduce costs. Don't blame the company as will the Democrats and Obama, blame academic theory meeting objective reality. 

Basic concept; If company A with US Costs can make and sell a widget for $3.30 and company B (in India or China) without Obamacare and unionized costs makes and sells the same widget for $0.50 even the most patriotic organization will go with B.  

In November, Obama lied, cheated and enabled by a barely competent MSM deceived the electorate. I will only make the 2% pay more. Well we had already globalized our portfolios Mr President. Now we see the first hike on the middle class, a payroll tax increase of around $100-200 per pay check. As Obama ramps up his spending as he only sees ideological value rather than fiscal. Basic economics say, the revenue to fulfil his grand schemes cannot come from the 2% even at 100% tax. It has to come from the 47% of working Americans. Now with a sycophant like Lew as Treasury Secretary, Obama's stupidity, lack of empathy and downright narcissism will have no voice of reason. Spend, Spend, Spend will lead to a tank in the dollar. S&P analysts will have conniption fits over the worsening debt ratio and economic indicators. I project by Q1 2014, if Obama is not stopped by the GOP House, our S&P rating will be A+. (Good is AAA BTW, as we used to be) Our bonds and debt (TBonds) will have to yield anything up to the Spain and Portugalesque 6% which will knock on to a 6 -11% jump in your personal interest payments. 

What really becomes a problem at that point is what economists call “Confidence”. When confidence fails in an economy buying ceases, investment halts and people don't trust anything. Banks fail, corporations saddled with debt and increasing labor costs close or relocate and USA Inc goes bankrupt.

Obama is a rank amateur that's too stupid and too arrogant to know his own limitations and seek competent help to mitigate the deficiency. We need our GOP leadership to change and replace Speaker Boehner with a competent and strong leader who will resist and slow the Obama disaster.  In effect save America from Obama and his foolish and childlike policies.

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  • Just to update the slow PR release from the Treasury regarding fiscal growth in Q1 and Q2 hit our desks yesterday ahead of a conference in NY on Friday. Expected growth 2.24%. Our analysts, supported by the Deutsche Bank NY and BNYMellon teams (Both pretty sharp) put our most optimistic expectation at 0.8%. We think we will see a contraction by Q2 and see -0.03% in effect a return to recession.

  • I agree with you Gregg.  A well written article.   I also agree with most of what Stephen Kasmer has to say. I read somewhere that Obama is increasing his protection, armed guards, etc.   There can only be one reason for this.   That reason is either fear or cowardice.   I'm not sure which term would be more correct. If I were he, I would take the first plane to the middle east and hide for the rest of my life.   He doesn't need to fear us so  much as the younger generations.   The ones who believed in him, voted for him, and are being betrayed by him.   We're old enough to know better and know that he can't fulfill all those lies.   But the younger generations have no conscience.   They will soon tire of sleeping in the cold on sidewalks in the cities freezing and starving to death because they had faith in him.   They will know he is the reason that they can't retire like their parents did at 62 yrs of age.   They will know exactly who did this to them.   It wasn't us!   Here we're talking about bank accounts.   Our grand children will be looking for a bowl of rice.   He can't be allowed to continue down this road to nowhere. Before they had guns they had stones.   Go ahead, outlaw stones.   He will reap what he has sown.

  • Dan, that is why I put the term in quotation marks. Theya re liars and cowards busy protecting their career politican status only.

  • Folks..there is no such thing as a Blue Dog Democrat...it's a scam. Every Democrat today is a Liberal and a Socialist . If they are instructed to vote against Obama and the Party it's because their vote will have no consequence and they do it because they need to appear Blue Dog. Please stop being so naïve to it all .

  • Both should be prosecuted for crimes against the United States

  • Things we should see this year:

    YES! A tank of the dollar and another form of currency to become the global reserve. Obama's fault!

    Obama implemented in the Benghazi attack and investigations into the same issues in Syria and Impeachment proceedings initiated for both.

    By 2014 there will be such civil unrest here in America over Obama and his trying to stay in power that we might see the first president physically removed from office and placed in prison to await trial for treason.

    Another financial collapse worse then 1929 and 2008 combined which will lead to---

    A war in the Middle East that will draw in everyone. WW III!  It has to happen just like after 1929 and the idiot FDR who spent 8 years spinning his wheels going nowhere with all his worthless economic plans---the war is what boosted the economy, nothing that FDR did, "BUT" this time around it will only result in 50 times the deaths and the ultimate end of mans rule on earth.

    There will be more judgements on America before it falls and all because of our leaders and an American public who is so depleted of brain power and they only want to live carnally and for self that they elected and allowed their leaders to lie, cheat and steal from the rest of America to serve their addiction of GIMME GIMME GIMME, all the while believing that the world owes them.

  • Leon stole my thunder a bit but here goes. The biggest problem we have is republicrats in Congress who just roll over and let this happen. And what about the "blue-dog democrats" that were so balleyhoed in 2009/2010? We are no longer a representative republic. We have become a dictatorial oligarchy with two political parties fighting over the spoils of a war of tyranny that they are winning and almost have totally won. Who gets the biggest piece of the tyranny pie, republicrats or demoncrats?

  • Congress is enabling that guy in the White house. He only has the power that they allow him to have. Not until we demand accountability will anything change. We have had 4 years of stupidity and that don't seem to be enough for us. Ultimately we are at fault. We allow this to continue. Everything that I took pride in my country is now in question. The answer to all this lies in the constitution and we must get back to fallowing it to the letter. 

  • come on, do you really think the Rs will get rid of cry baby boehner & put someone intelligent in there?  they had the chance to get rid of him & voted him back in, they are all a bunch of wimps & do not care about the country, no matter if they are R or D

  • Sandy, I think Q1 2014 will be ghastly as the capital exodus will have nearly been completed. It's already started. 

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